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Dec 6, 2012
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to find out if increased home sales and efforts to rebuild after hurricane sandy could drive it higher. scuba diving the great barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. ♪ mom? dad? guys? [ engine turns over ] [ engine revs ] ♪ he'll be fine. [ male announcer ] more people are leaving bmw, mercedes and lexus for audi than ever before. take advantage of exceptional values during the season of audi event. take advantage of exceptional values when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can in
to find out if increased home sales and efforts to rebuild after hurricane sandy could drive it higher. scuba diving the great barrier reef with sharks, or jumping into the market, he goes with people he trusts, which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. ♪ mom? dad? guys?...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation rate, down 0.2 to 63.6%. how did we get to 7.7% unemployment? basically the number of unemployed persons dropped more than the number of employed and there were downward trends in both those categories. lots to chew on. back to you guys. >> hampton, thank you. we are kind of scratching our heads. let's get more reaction from our panel. mark zandi and jared bernstein are here with us. mark, what do you make of this number? we've set this up as numbers were not going to be things we watched closely because of sandy. >> i'd say two things
now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation...
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Dec 5, 2012
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the blame goes to superstorm sandy. goldman says the party is officially over for gold. >> starbucks at an investors conference will add 1,500 stores in the u.s. over the next five years. wait until you hear what they said about china. >> a big day in media. pandora ceo joins us live later this morning as the stock fell nearly 20% on weak guidance and netflix signs a big exclusive with disney. how much are they having to pay up for that? >>> let's deal with this big deal. as i've been telling you we'll see a lot of big deals -- i was wrong. here we are. freeport mcmoran buying not one but two companies. the combined price if you add it all together gets close to $20 billion. that does include debt. let's go through some of the details. it's somewhat complex. let's start with bigger of the two deals. freeport's purchase of plains. approximately $6.9 billion in total now. it's a cash and stock deal. .6531 shares and 39 bucks a share in cash. that adds up to $50 a share. that's a fairly significant premium when we look at
the blame goes to superstorm sandy. goldman says the party is officially over for gold. >> starbucks at an investors conference will add 1,500 stores in the u.s. over the next five years. wait until you hear what they said about china. >> a big day in media. pandora ceo joins us live later this morning as the stock fell nearly 20% on weak guidance and netflix signs a big exclusive with disney. how much are they having to pay up for that? >>> let's deal with this big deal....
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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it actually blamed the fiscal cliff in part, as well as super storm sandy. the ceo said consumers were distracted by the cliff. the storm and the election. staying with clothing, vera bradley -- well, handbags. those shares also tanking and they are blaming sandy as well but also noted their holiday season is off to a slow start. jeffri jeffries raising the tart fro tm $22 to $20. not all bad news. finisar, higher demand for tranceivers. what else? the stock down 17% year to date. finally, zynga. take a look at shares. they are up nearly 7% because they filed for a gambling license. that is right. the virtual game company wants to become a real poker company. let's bring in julia boorstin with more on this zynga story. seems like if they get it, a completely transformative thing. >> it would be transformative and zynga's definitely pushing forward with its plans to eventually make money from online gambling but the key thing here is that this is really a ways off. the stock soared as much as 9% higher this morning after it came out that zynga applied for rea
it actually blamed the fiscal cliff in part, as well as super storm sandy. the ceo said consumers were distracted by the cliff. the storm and the election. staying with clothing, vera bradley -- well, handbags. those shares also tanking and they are blaming sandy as well but also noted their holiday season is off to a slow start. jeffri jeffries raising the tart fro tm $22 to $20. not all bad news. finisar, higher demand for tranceivers. what else? the stock down 17% year to date. finally,...
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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incomes are flat and hurricane sandy shut down the northeast for days and in some cases for weeks. even though we have had positive numbers from companies like home dep depot, the group would be flat lining. yet that hasn't been happening. it is shown by the rth, the market vectovector's retail num. it has been showing very well. that is why tonight we are going off the charts with the help of ed ponzi. my colleague at realmoney.com, we have to learn what the charts are seeing. if you remember, one of the reasons why i went back to ed. he is the guy who nailed it and went against the grain in europe. right before the decision on the european bailout. and according to him, according to a guy who went against the grain then and was right. when you look at the market based on the markets, retail might be the most attractive area to own in this whole market. look, look at this daily chart of the rth. this is it. excellent proxy for the whole group. it does work. you can see from the year earlier in october. november 21st, this is the spot here, it has come roaring back. he points out t
incomes are flat and hurricane sandy shut down the northeast for days and in some cases for weeks. even though we have had positive numbers from companies like home dep depot, the group would be flat lining. yet that hasn't been happening. it is shown by the rth, the market vectovector's retail num. it has been showing very well. that is why tonight we are going off the charts with the help of ed ponzi. my colleague at realmoney.com, we have to learn what the charts are seeing. if you remember,...
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Dec 5, 2012
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before sandy. where are we internationally? europe. what are some of the other key area, though? i think latin america, though. i think it's coming back. asia already turned. here's the new piece of data. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to watch. you get that thing at 11 or blow. i'm out blessing it. haven't done that in a while. in europe i'm thinking that i'm sanguine. excited about ford. we have ample evidence today that i'm right. affordability is skyrocketing. the rates remained too low. homes down sharply. and pricing is moving up in california, nevada, arizona all things we learned from the luxury home builder toll today. oh, that's fine. they leave out the most important fact that i hadn't heard from anybody, let alone toll brothers before. demographic play, how the company's chairman talked how demographics are going to take over. household formation is unnatural but because of the great recession. now at least it's picking up. there should are several new home buyers out there because of pent-up demand. well, from the delay of creation of new families
before sandy. where are we internationally? europe. what are some of the other key area, though? i think latin america, though. i think it's coming back. asia already turned. here's the new piece of data. i think europe could be stablized. ford is the one to watch. you get that thing at 11 or blow. i'm out blessing it. haven't done that in a while. in europe i'm thinking that i'm sanguine. excited about ford. we have ample evidence today that i'm right. affordability is skyrocketing. the rates...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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and all this despite the effects of hurricane sandy. who knows how high we could have been if it weren't for that darn hurricane? yet the market barely blinked. yet the potential layoffs if we go over the cliff make these rearview numbers seem almost irrelevant to the market. hence the mixed performance of the averages today. sure, dow gained 81 points, but the s&p barely budged, edging up 29%. and the nasdaq actually declined .38%, led once again by the slip sliding away apple, which you know i like, but how many times during a particular show can i say i like it? so with that in mind, what's the game plan for next week? first off, perhaps the most important day of the week is monday. but not for any earnings. not for any releases. that's when we process the results of the weekend talk shows, which you now have to watch as if we were instead of watching, you know, college gameday, i'm watching like some of those other news stations -- and then of course sunday morning whoever -- you don't even pay attention -- football means nothing no
and all this despite the effects of hurricane sandy. who knows how high we could have been if it weren't for that darn hurricane? yet the market barely blinked. yet the potential layoffs if we go over the cliff make these rearview numbers seem almost irrelevant to the market. hence the mixed performance of the averages today. sure, dow gained 81 points, but the s&p barely budged, edging up 29%. and the nasdaq actually declined .38%, led once again by the slip sliding away apple, which you...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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how much is blamed on sandy when it shouldn't? >> everything blamed on sandy. that's going to work for a while. once you dig into the details, wait a minute, this isn't all sandy. because the east coast is a very big part of the -- >> obviously oh, yes. >> the economy. >> everybody who has gone through sandy. >> chicago is a big part, texas, california, they weren't affected directly by sandy. so that will come back much quicker if it's going to come back. that's where you have to look, to see what the trend was beforehand. >> okay. now europe. you know, there was a little bit of a -- a confusion this morning when spain asked for a bailout. they're talking bank bailout, country bailout, new program. rates are down. i've seen many stories, if this is really going to be a positive rates being down, we have to really draw in more global investors. do you think that will happen ultimately? >> ultimately, i do think it will. any time europe gets pushed to the background, i'm kind of pleased. as long as their banking system isn't going to affect ours, i think we can
how much is blamed on sandy when it shouldn't? >> everything blamed on sandy. that's going to work for a while. once you dig into the details, wait a minute, this isn't all sandy. because the east coast is a very big part of the -- >> obviously oh, yes. >> the economy. >> everybody who has gone through sandy. >> chicago is a big part, texas, california, they weren't affected directly by sandy. so that will come back much quicker if it's going to come back. that's...
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Dec 5, 2012
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it may have been reduced by 86,000 because of hurricane sandy. but there was a good number today which was the ism data when it comes to the services sector. you can see it was up. there's the adp data. but i want to talk about the services sector which was up a bit more than expected. then what you had, business activity was up, new orders were up, employment was the one thing that was down. i don't know if that's a sandy effect. that could be also, by the way, a fiscal cliff effect. zplint vi >> interviewing secretary geithner later today. what's your first question going to be? >> i want to get his response -- we had the president respond to boehner's proposal but i want to get the secretary's response, too, the specific issue of, hey, the republicans looked like they made a step forward, actually got some accolades in some of the press for agreeing to new revenues. where's the administration's response on that side? are they willing to give? i think that's a key question right now in terms of what the news flow is right now but also there's c
it may have been reduced by 86,000 because of hurricane sandy. but there was a good number today which was the ism data when it comes to the services sector. you can see it was up. there's the adp data. but i want to talk about the services sector which was up a bit more than expected. then what you had, business activity was up, new orders were up, employment was the one thing that was down. i don't know if that's a sandy effect. that could be also, by the way, a fiscal cliff effect. zplint vi...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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. >> billy joel was quite a hero in the concert for sandy. he looked great and he sounded great. >> if i don't like billy joel, i'm done. >> caller: what's your opinion on plcn, polycom? >> we don't want to be in anything i regard as video and voice because you'll be competing against the giant that is cisco! >> glen in illinois, please. again? >> caller: i'd like to thank you on your excellent insight into jobs in general. >> my stock has been up at past eight trading days and i was wondering if this was any case the stocks were to pop. cldx is the prop. don't know why it's up. got to come back. sorry. could be a could good expectation. >> all my florida calls are so -- what do you got? you got this guy mr. social meaning he knows how to use social media better than anyone i've ever seen. >> stephanie lake, we were talking, i said this is right now one of my absolute favorite stocks between now and when this deal closes, underrated, so smart, it will do 14, what he has done for coffee! let's go to john in colorado. >> hi, jim. i'd like to gi
. >> billy joel was quite a hero in the concert for sandy. he looked great and he sounded great. >> if i don't like billy joel, i'm done. >> caller: what's your opinion on plcn, polycom? >> we don't want to be in anything i regard as video and voice because you'll be competing against the giant that is cisco! >> glen in illinois, please. again? >> caller: i'd like to thank you on your excellent insight into jobs in general. >> my stock has been up at...
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Dec 5, 2012
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you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000. >> that will add some jobs, that's not a fair comparison. >> so 200,000 minus 60 is 150 -- >> so you're right there. >> i don't think the economy has chang chang changed deappreciably over the last year. >> well, i think coming into friday's number, we're a little -- we don't think there's 80,000 worth of impact, might be closer to 40,000 or 50,000. whatever, there's been an impact and i agree with mark's point, 1 in about 150,000 job creation in the economy and i don't know that meaningfully changes. but i would say, if anything, the bias next year
you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000....
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Nov 29, 2012
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. >> tom, right after sandy, a couple weeks ago or three weeks eeg y ago you were talking about sandy being twice the size of katrina but the wind speeds weren't as much and it wasn't going to affect all state. did you see christie and cuomo? are those real numbers? is that what they'd like to see from the feds or is it worse than what you thought on november 1st? itz's worse than what we thought out. it will cost us 1 billion 75 doll lars. it is a significant event. it's significant flooding. that's not typically konked by us but by the government if you buy their policy. unfortunately very few people buy coverage. so unfort flatly there's a bunch of people whose homes got wrecked and that's what cuomo and christie are seeking. our government has a hit of going back to the state and saying, sorry you didn't buy insurance, here's some money and they'll do it again. they're trying to negotiate as to how much they get. >> allstate's ceo tom wilson. we appreciate your time. >> thank you. >>> when we return, we'll have gene ludwig. he will be our special guest. also at the bottom of the h
. >> tom, right after sandy, a couple weeks ago or three weeks eeg y ago you were talking about sandy being twice the size of katrina but the wind speeds weren't as much and it wasn't going to affect all state. did you see christie and cuomo? are those real numbers? is that what they'd like to see from the feds or is it worse than what you thought on november 1st? itz's worse than what we thought out. it will cost us 1 billion 75 doll lars. it is a significant event. it's significant...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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the tragedy of hurricane sandy was a revelation. our country needs to upgrade its power grid and we've got to do it now. in this one area, it seems like our state governments and utilities are actually on the case, which is why you want to own quanta services, power, pwr, the company that builds out any infrastructure and a killer pipeline business. what's not to like? after the break, i'll try to make you more money. >>> coming up -- >> how should of pleasure. >>> pending home sales rose to a five-year high today, but which stock should you moved into is it as the foundation for growth and housing becomes more secure. tonight it's an open house for three potential plays on a real estate rebound. which one should you put an offer out on? with the spark cash card from capital one, olaf gets great rewards for his small business! pizza! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ] [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve great rewards!
the tragedy of hurricane sandy was a revelation. our country needs to upgrade its power grid and we've got to do it now. in this one area, it seems like our state governments and utilities are actually on the case, which is why you want to own quanta services, power, pwr, the company that builds out any infrastructure and a killer pipeline business. what's not to like? after the break, i'll try to make you more money. >>> coming up -- >> how should of pleasure. >>>...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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and a lot of companies were saying it was just superstorm sandy. it shut down the stores in some cases or kept consumers at bay. how do you think we will fare to the holidays? >> yesterday was big day for retail. those that roar yesterday, genuinely speaking had poor numbers. we knew it was the hurricane. we knew it would be weak. you know. it was supposed to be adjusted in the expectations. numbers came in way below expectations. some of the stocks got hammered, macy's, kohl's. we are trying to make sense of what that means. we when you go through each retailer in the numbers, really the first half -- businesses really slowed. first two weeks. anything we think of, not the hurricane itself. must have been the concern, you know, about the hurricane and people watching tv. people focused on that. also, you know, with the election people focused on that. you know. so the first two weeks are weak. last two weeks seem to come back and be fairly decent. >> so you think that for the holiday shopping season, that the -- better trend will continue? where d
and a lot of companies were saying it was just superstorm sandy. it shut down the stores in some cases or kept consumers at bay. how do you think we will fare to the holidays? >> yesterday was big day for retail. those that roar yesterday, genuinely speaking had poor numbers. we knew it was the hurricane. we knew it would be weak. you know. it was supposed to be adjusted in the expectations. numbers came in way below expectations. some of the stocks got hammered, macy's, kohl's. we are...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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the tragedy of hurricane sandy was a revelation. our country needs to upgrade its power grid and we've got to do it now. in this one area, it seems like our state governments and our utilities are actually on the case, which is why you want to own quanta services, power, pwr, the company that builds out new infrastructure and has a killer pipeline business. what's not to like? after the break, i'll try to make you more money. >>> coming up -- >> house of pleasure. >>> pending home sales rose to a five-year high today, but which stock should you moved into as the foundation for growth and housing becomes more secure. tonight it's an open house for three potential plays on a real estate rebound. which one should you put an offer out on? [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection.
the tragedy of hurricane sandy was a revelation. our country needs to upgrade its power grid and we've got to do it now. in this one area, it seems like our state governments and our utilities are actually on the case, which is why you want to own quanta services, power, pwr, the company that builds out new infrastructure and has a killer pipeline business. what's not to like? after the break, i'll try to make you more money. >>> coming up -- >> house of pleasure. >>>...
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Dec 4, 2012
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amazon is just a winner here particularly in sandy. i regard google as making a comeback. i think that when you look at what -- apple fears google. google is going to do better going forward. look at facebook by the way. they figured out things. i'm not going to be -- i'm looking at stocks that once we go over the cliff bounce back and if we don't go over the cliff are where a lot of money is going. >> where does ulta, are these tier 2 names? >> ulta is -- david and i joke about this. it's the growth stock -- key to this market. gilliad has been great. same with ulta. you may laugh at ulta. i won't finish my sentence. >> i may. >> this double the store thing is what whole foods says. any time you can double stores, growth guys just love it. >> we're told there's no concern if we go over the fiscal cliff that that will result in some sort of a chill in the housing recovery offer the housing market. this harvard study that bob toll cited, 1.8 to 2.8 million households fewer since 2007 were formed and that's playing catchup. we should have the formation of those households un
amazon is just a winner here particularly in sandy. i regard google as making a comeback. i think that when you look at what -- apple fears google. google is going to do better going forward. look at facebook by the way. they figured out things. i'm not going to be -- i'm looking at stocks that once we go over the cliff bounce back and if we don't go over the cliff are where a lot of money is going. >> where does ulta, are these tier 2 names? >> ulta is -- david and i joke about...
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Dec 7, 2012
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you had sandy. i mean, it may be -- the journal argued it's the least important jobs number in five years. >> i saw that. i do think one thing we can certainly say given that china seems to be stabilizing a bit, we can all discuss europe. greek situation. maybe it's off the front pages for a while. and so if we assume that the jobs picture in the u.s. is not bad, let's assume not bad, it puts even more of a focus on the fiscal cliff negotiations because it becomes even more binding one would assume in terms of good or bad for the market, for the economy. >> kernen had a good point. does strength mean the economy could handle a cliff or is it so good you wouldn't want to tamper -- >> if i wanted to create a recession, what would i do? i would raise everybody's rates. i would cut the unemployment benefit. just trying to think of a theory of how i could cause a recession. i would cut back government spending quickly. >> i would raise interest rates to 20%. >> bernanke ought to join the -- look, i think
you had sandy. i mean, it may be -- the journal argued it's the least important jobs number in five years. >> i saw that. i do think one thing we can certainly say given that china seems to be stabilizing a bit, we can all discuss europe. greek situation. maybe it's off the front pages for a while. and so if we assume that the jobs picture in the u.s. is not bad, let's assume not bad, it puts even more of a focus on the fiscal cliff negotiations because it becomes even more binding one...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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early thanksgiving, hurricane sandy. is this rally at the end of the day having anything to do with any anticipation of the jobs report? what are you looking for? >> no, i don't think so. we're looking for almost exactly half. we had 171,000. the consensus is 85 to 90,000. we're looking at half. i understand that, you know, superstorm san difs a horrible event, and i am sure it's going to take some jobs out, but it's going to also be a bit of an excusetrending well. i'll give you an example. wells fargo gallup does a small survey. on hiring, small businesses dropped to the lowest level of opt miimism in four years. it doesn't matter what ben bernanke does. i think his programs have long since not really helped the employment side, but the fiscal cliff is doing obvious damage. that's going to make what everybody knows is coming. we ran out of two years to sell. they're going to go from a twist to outright purchases. it's fully built into the market, but it isn't going to help. the fiscal cliff is going to do more damage t
early thanksgiving, hurricane sandy. is this rally at the end of the day having anything to do with any anticipation of the jobs report? what are you looking for? >> no, i don't think so. we're looking for almost exactly half. we had 171,000. the consensus is 85 to 90,000. we're looking at half. i understand that, you know, superstorm san difs a horrible event, and i am sure it's going to take some jobs out, but it's going to also be a bit of an excusetrending well. i'll give you an...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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founder of lumber liquidators to find out if increased home sales and efforts to rebuild after hurricane sandy could drive it higher. all coming up on "mad money." >>> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. n you. ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. >>> here in the united states, we're sitting on titanic amounts of energy that's both cheaper and cleaner than coal or oil, talking about natural gas. but we end up burning off millions of cubic feet of it every day because we don't have enough demand since our government refuses to support embracing nat gas for surface vehicles. while we probably aren't
founder of lumber liquidators to find out if increased home sales and efforts to rebuild after hurricane sandy could drive it higher. all coming up on "mad money." >>> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. n you. ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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no substantive sandy in the jobs numbers. the lack of sandy effect has us scratching our heads, what they said. i just got off the phone with the guy who's the head of doing the numbers, labor numbers at the bls. he walked me through the rather extensibilive process they did fine out if there was any sandy effect, including sampling of businesses in a flood tide areas. >> it was very meticulous. >> i'm pretty convinced they did a good job figuring out if there was an effect and there is no effect which brings us to the numbers which you could believe on face value as much as you can. they'll revise this again. they only come forward with 60% to 70% of the sample. unemployment rate falling 7.7% because largely a drop in the labor force. average hourly earnings up 0.2%. despite positive headlines, xwoeld man sax says we interpret this report as one only slightly better than expected overall given downward revisions and weaker labor force and it does not change our assessment of the underlying strength of the labor market. priva
no substantive sandy in the jobs numbers. the lack of sandy effect has us scratching our heads, what they said. i just got off the phone with the guy who's the head of doing the numbers, labor numbers at the bls. he walked me through the rather extensibilive process they did fine out if there was any sandy effect, including sampling of businesses in a flood tide areas. >> it was very meticulous. >> i'm pretty convinced they did a good job figuring out if there was an effect and...
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private sector. that's a big jobs -- it might be hurricane related, but it could also be cliff related. there's these two things just backing up what joe said, folks, we've got enough to worry about without the stuff that we could probably fix and move on, there's enough going on. you can see that we're going to be substantially below the six-month average that we've been running there. and that shows that, you know, we were not robust to begin with, and this is why guys at the fed are concerned about things like this. if you're going 3% or 4% gdp, you have
of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private...
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Nov 30, 2012
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sandy may have been the singest biggest car destroyer since katrina. or maybe more, given the fact that so many imparted cars were damaged near the cox of the region's rivers. tuesday morning we hear from the brothers toll. here's the best home builder in the country go. ing to tell you the story of the boom. if you remember there was a time when bob toll of toll brothers and eagles fan came on "mad money" during what turned out to be the early part of the housing collapse. he said he saw the light at the end of the tunnel. but it was most like lit light of an on-coming train. those days are gladly behind us. i suspect the toll tells a story that it goes down the fiscal cliff monday. every day is fiscal cliff tuesday, wednesday, thursday. you get the picture. anyway, you should pull the trigger here to buy it here if the fiscal cliff does what i'm afraid of. brown foreman reports wednesday. this is an interesting one. why? because goldman downgraded it to sell. just last night. i've seen this movie. they were wrong last time. they'll be wrong again. i'
sandy may have been the singest biggest car destroyer since katrina. or maybe more, given the fact that so many imparted cars were damaged near the cox of the region's rivers. tuesday morning we hear from the brothers toll. here's the best home builder in the country go. ing to tell you the story of the boom. if you remember there was a time when bob toll of toll brothers and eagles fan came on "mad money" during what turned out to be the early part of the housing collapse. he said he...
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Dec 1, 2012
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sandy has made the month of november virtually irrelevant. we can sweat it, puzzle over it. in the end we'll have to dismiss it unless the unemployment rate has shockingly dropped. which would be an odd anomaly, which would show that the country could pick up the slack of the northeast. i don't think that's going to happen. next week's game plan starts on sunday when treasure secretary tim geithner will appear on "meet the press" with my friend david gregory and hopefully explain how we're going to get out of this fiscal cliff mess. for once i actually believe we'll be able to bridge the cliff on the eve of destruction. and knowing that, i am both a guy who wants to take the pin off before new year's and i'm a buyer into negative capital chatter next week. not a seller, like so many of the pessimists out there. why don't we start with neil in florida. neil. >> reporter: boo ya, jim. it's neil in florida. face book dropped zynga, what should i do? hold or drop zynga? >> have a little january effect. everybody selling that thing nine ways to sunday. bad news. maybe they'll fin
sandy has made the month of november virtually irrelevant. we can sweat it, puzzle over it. in the end we'll have to dismiss it unless the unemployment rate has shockingly dropped. which would be an odd anomaly, which would show that the country could pick up the slack of the northeast. i don't think that's going to happen. next week's game plan starts on sunday when treasure secretary tim geithner will appear on "meet the press" with my friend david gregory and hopefully explain how...
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Dec 6, 2012
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we got the big distortions from san sandy. slowly working through that. so i think if there's an outlier, investors will yawn and wait for the big nonfarm payroll report tomorrow. >> are we comfortable mf-i don't know how comfortable we are. consumers seem to be in better fettl eflt. >> in spite of this anemic job growth that we've had during the entire jobless recovery, it seems like consumers sense the -- their balance sheets have improved pretty dramatically. so, yeah, consumers -- and that's led to consumers spending slightly more than what experts thought they would spend. >> so you're overweight large cap versus small cap. why? >> the large cap u.s. multinationals, they typically have overseas subsidiaries that can reach into the emerging pockets of growth. i like the dividends payers, as well, because in these choppy markets which we'll continue to have get nice dividends. >> all right much ha. . have a good day. that's it for today's program. "squawk box" it is next. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life exp
we got the big distortions from san sandy. slowly working through that. so i think if there's an outlier, investors will yawn and wait for the big nonfarm payroll report tomorrow. >> are we comfortable mf-i don't know how comfortable we are. consumers seem to be in better fettl eflt. >> in spite of this anemic job growth that we've had during the entire jobless recovery, it seems like consumers sense the -- their balance sheets have improved pretty dramatically. so, yeah, consumers...
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Dec 3, 2012
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how much of this demand rise are we going to see will be sandy rebound from sandy and actually real demand? >> we have low interest rates and old cars on the road. so a lot of the demand is real demand. but the other thing is that all the checks haven't been written for sandy. we've had about two weeks of checks coming from insurance companies. but there will be more probably next month of that than there is this month. so it will help. but it's the general market conditions and cars that are on average 11.1 years of age that are really driving car sales. in this low interest rate environment, this is the other big ticket item. >> how are people going to fund their purchases? you have an 11-year-old car, how are they funding the replacement of it? >> well, the availability of credit has improved dramatically over the last eight months or so. and we're even seeing people with bumps in their credit history, subprime borrowers, getting more acceptances of their car loans. and of course there are a lot of incentivized interest rates from the manufacturer's financing arms out there, as well. th
how much of this demand rise are we going to see will be sandy rebound from sandy and actually real demand? >> we have low interest rates and old cars on the road. so a lot of the demand is real demand. but the other thing is that all the checks haven't been written for sandy. we've had about two weeks of checks coming from insurance companies. but there will be more probably next month of that than there is this month. so it will help. but it's the general market conditions and cars that...
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Nov 29, 2012
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hurricane sandy was directly in his district so he made some comments about it. he said that the damage was worse than first anticipated. that's something we've been talking a lot about. original number was $50 billion. it's in the $70 billion to $90 billion range. it is probably going to shave a quarter to half a point off gdp. you talked about the fiscal cliff which he says congress and the president must address. he says because we're at the zero balance, interest rates were zero, the effect of the fiscal cliff is getting much worse than if the fed were not at zero. >> because they could do something. >> the only positive thing which dudley did not talk about but it is something that's on the radar is that, as the fiscal cliff fears rise, interest rates fall on the 10-year. so the effect the fed would have from easing is already in -- already happening as a market reaction. >> steve, thank you. >>> when jeff kilburg is not fired up about the irish he is fired up about what mr. dudley said today. why? >> absolutely. he came out with very dovish comments. he las
hurricane sandy was directly in his district so he made some comments about it. he said that the damage was worse than first anticipated. that's something we've been talking a lot about. original number was $50 billion. it's in the $70 billion to $90 billion range. it is probably going to shave a quarter to half a point off gdp. you talked about the fiscal cliff which he says congress and the president must address. he says because we're at the zero balance, interest rates were zero, the effect...
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Dec 3, 2012
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particularly on the consumer side as well, because of sandy. so i think in the meantime, until we get a resolution, i've said before, i think you're going to be in a trading range. and i think into the strength of the market, you want to take some off, never bad to have some cash. but on these pullbacks, i think you want to be buying, because i actually think the economy is getting better, particularly when you look at housing, consumer, even auto and aerospace, all those data points point to 2013. >> are you buying the market on any pullback? >> i like the santa claus rally with josh and would be raising cash. i think the risk in the markets further on the down side than the up side. but when you see some real pullbacks, buy the stock if you like it. >> morgan stanley's top market watcher has been bearish all year and not ready to change his mind. adam parker joins us live. welcome back to halftime. good to see you. >> how are you, scott? >> 1167 is where you thought we would be at the end of the year. you'll be far short. why aren't you willi
particularly on the consumer side as well, because of sandy. so i think in the meantime, until we get a resolution, i've said before, i think you're going to be in a trading range. and i think into the strength of the market, you want to take some off, never bad to have some cash. but on these pullbacks, i think you want to be buying, because i actually think the economy is getting better, particularly when you look at housing, consumer, even auto and aerospace, all those data points point to...
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Dec 6, 2012
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as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this number is going to tell us nothing tomorrow? > know there's going to be a lot of discussion about it. i'll stick to my guns, it's a 125 to 150 economy growth some of that could be sandy. i don't donknow if you want to k about that chart. this looks at the net effect acceptable. if 30% say it's acceptable and 20% say -- these are what we asked people. how many is that? that's five of eight different solutions. >> people say, yes, we're okay dealing with the fiscal cliff, if you raise taxes on those who make more than $250,000 and then you cap deductions, and virtually everything else is off the table. >>
as soon as you get done figuring out, how much is sandy, how much is not sandy, we have to start dealing with the fiscal cliff so there's a shock behind us and a shock in front of us. so we're in limbo right now. and we're expecting a big effect from sandy in the friday number, especially in maybe the household survey, they moved the survey week back a week. because of an early thanksgiving. they do that -- so instead of it being the week of the 12th, it's the week of the 5th. >> so this...
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Dec 5, 2012
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we believe that the effect of the payroll will be at 50,000 range due to the effect of hurricane sandy which could put our unemployment up to an 8% rate. >> all right. we'll be watching that. thanks very much to you both. we appreciate it. of course we'll be looking at this market and whether or not it loses the steam come the big rally today. ticktock, ticktock on the fiscal cliff. my thoughts on the story from timothy geithner. guess what, folks. i think we're going over the cliff. back in a moment. are system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never missed a beat. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. with the spark cash card from capital one, sven gets great rewards for his small business! how does this thing work? oh, i like it! [ garth ] sven's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! woo-hoo!!! so that's ten s
we believe that the effect of the payroll will be at 50,000 range due to the effect of hurricane sandy which could put our unemployment up to an 8% rate. >> all right. we'll be watching that. thanks very much to you both. we appreciate it. of course we'll be looking at this market and whether or not it loses the steam come the big rally today. ticktock, ticktock on the fiscal cliff. my thoughts on the story from timothy geithner. guess what, folks. i think we're going over the cliff. back...
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Dec 7, 2012
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>> well, keep in mind one of the reasons expectations were so low going into this one was hurricane sandy which everyone expected to be a temporary effect. that didn't material az somewhat mi mysteriously and the labor department indicated it had no impact on the number. you're right, this is not good enough. this is a treading water pace of jobs. it is more of the same. it's not particularly good in the quality of jobs being created so net net i think it's okay but certainly not what we'd like to see. >> maybe, tom, it is not that we are a nation of pessimists. it is that we're a nation of realists. maybe sort of from a strk turl long point of view we just have to get used to this. >> that's a great point. 150,000 is not good enough depending on your expectations for growth. if you're looking for 1.5% to 2% growth you are probably in the sweet spot. but if you are looking for something more, looking for 2.5% to 3% growth you need much more job growth to see that outcome. but we're not there. we don't think we'll get there. there's still too many headwind facing the small business segment
>> well, keep in mind one of the reasons expectations were so low going into this one was hurricane sandy which everyone expected to be a temporary effect. that didn't material az somewhat mi mysteriously and the labor department indicated it had no impact on the number. you're right, this is not good enough. this is a treading water pace of jobs. it is more of the same. it's not particularly good in the quality of jobs being created so net net i think it's okay but certainly not what...
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Dec 4, 2012
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know what's going on in the next couple of months, coupled with the fact we just came off of hurricane sandy, this is not the time to play games and taunt one another with these plans that everybody knows are not real plans. >> i agree, but i think we should look beyond one year's growth. we're talking about growth through 2050. the gentleman pretending to know he knows the growth rate between now and 2050 -- >> he gets paid to make predictions, steve. that's what he's doing. by the way, his former predictions have been right. let's give him that. >> some of them have been right. there was a guy in the 19th century who predicted we were all going to starve as he predicted the proplatiopulation of the world with but forgot to predict the agricultural technology. you can't hold one constant and let the other variable be a variable. >> right now this country is focusing on policies that continue to predistribute from the most productive members to those that may be more favorable. that's his point, that we've continued to lose momentum for the past several decades and continuing to implement th
know what's going on in the next couple of months, coupled with the fact we just came off of hurricane sandy, this is not the time to play games and taunt one another with these plans that everybody knows are not real plans. >> i agree, but i think we should look beyond one year's growth. we're talking about growth through 2050. the gentleman pretending to know he knows the growth rate between now and 2050 -- >> he gets paid to make predictions, steve. that's what he's doing. by the...
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Dec 7, 2012
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we might actually have printed over 200 absent hurricane sandy. i would argue the trends is getting better. as jim pointed out, we need some clarity on the outlook, and the cliff is very important. if we go off the cliff, even if that number had been 250, the numbers still would weaken next year. >> jim, you have to make money in the meantime. where do you put your money? where are you putting money to work right now? >> well, i'm pessimistic. i share austin's view that i think we're going to go off the cliff and push this thing to february with the debt ceiling bill. as that reality comes in, the market is going to continue to struggle. i would avoid risky assets right now. i'd play something safe. play treasuries because you're not going to lose money on them. i'd play gold. i wouldn't be betting on that we're going to have a fix in place in the next 24 days that's going to lead to a big rebounds. >> all right. hang on one second, guys. we want to bring in and get your reaction to this rather surprising story that our phil lebeau has from illino
we might actually have printed over 200 absent hurricane sandy. i would argue the trends is getting better. as jim pointed out, we need some clarity on the outlook, and the cliff is very important. if we go off the cliff, even if that number had been 250, the numbers still would weaken next year. >> jim, you have to make money in the meantime. where do you put your money? where are you putting money to work right now? >> well, i'm pessimistic. i share austin's view that i think...
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Nov 30, 2012
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they did site sandy. what is interesting about the action, down about 7% is what the analysts are saying. credit suisse reduced their price target from 25 to $23 and say neutral but carries and company retains their buy rating with a $47 price tarpgt they took it down to 40. so obviously they still see huge upside in this company even though it's down 6.5% and their guidance is down. back to you. >> all right. thanks so much. let's get to rick santelli in chicago. he is in the pits of the cme with jim bianco. rick? >> absolutely. always an interesting guest. welcome, jim. i guess let's start out, you know, if i go back to october 26th when gdp from third quarter had its flash and it was 2%, the market was down close to ten basis points. they weren't satisfied with it even though it was better than everybody thought. so yesterday we get an upgrade to 2.7 and what happens? the market doesn't do anything to the down side reflecting that strength. so i think the market is smart. what do you think? >> i do too
they did site sandy. what is interesting about the action, down about 7% is what the analysts are saying. credit suisse reduced their price target from 25 to $23 and say neutral but carries and company retains their buy rating with a $47 price tarpgt they took it down to 40. so obviously they still see huge upside in this company even though it's down 6.5% and their guidance is down. back to you. >> all right. thanks so much. let's get to rick santelli in chicago. he is in the pits of the...
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Dec 6, 2012
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estimation now trading in the low 50s, moves to the upper 50s, it's digesting the negativity surrounding sandy and its geographic location well. they've got the cash in hand to fund this. this is a solid company. >> dennis gould is sitting at 1700, not talking about a special dividend here but is it going to pay dividends to own gold? >> i think owning gold in dollars has been a bad trade for a while. i'm bullish for gold in non-u.s. dollar terms, in yen terms and if you own gold in yen terms over the course of the last two months you are profitable. somebody owns gold in dollar terms is down several points. gold is nothing more than another currency, crossed against other currencies and there's nothing spectacular about gold, it's just a currency. >> call it a slick slide for oil, crude falling 2% nearing its lowest level in three weeks. for more let's go to jackie deangelis, the host of "futures now." >> crude having a tough day, the question is why. look at this chart dollar strength is causing major pain for oil, our question today is there more to selling than just the dollar rally? let's
estimation now trading in the low 50s, moves to the upper 50s, it's digesting the negativity surrounding sandy and its geographic location well. they've got the cash in hand to fund this. this is a solid company. >> dennis gould is sitting at 1700, not talking about a special dividend here but is it going to pay dividends to own gold? >> i think owning gold in dollars has been a bad trade for a while. i'm bullish for gold in non-u.s. dollar terms, in yen terms and if you own gold in...
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Dec 6, 2012
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post-sandy now reservations have come back from these airlines. there was a lot of worry of cancellations. >> because a lot of families still have not recovered from that. there was a thought that would be a much longer lag. >> bookings have returned to normal. that's key. >> kenny pulkari is here. there's no recipe. >> we might have to do takeout in the herrera household tonight. it's coming, guys, but it probably won't be here until tomorrow. you just have to wait. the market's kind of waiting, too. it's all on washington. i was impressed with yesterday the market was able to hold on to an advance in the face of apple. i think that boded pretty well. >> well, i think that's true but i think apple is a situation and issue unto itself. right? certainly it affects -- you saw what it did to the nasdaq yesterday. but for the broader market i think it does say a lot for the strength of the broader market in terms what have it wants to see. it wants to see the resolution. whether apple goes up or down. if we get a resolution of the fiscal cliff or the
post-sandy now reservations have come back from these airlines. there was a lot of worry of cancellations. >> because a lot of families still have not recovered from that. there was a thought that would be a much longer lag. >> bookings have returned to normal. that's key. >> kenny pulkari is here. there's no recipe. >> we might have to do takeout in the herrera household tonight. it's coming, guys, but it probably won't be here until tomorrow. you just have to wait. the...
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Dec 6, 2012
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jobless claims coming in, down and this number should be essentially clean of sandy effects, so finally a clean read as to the claims aspect. but it doesn't look like, jim, that we are set for a lower open today. >> carl pointed out that maybe there's some room between sides. but, look, yesterday was one of those days, show a lot of americans don't even know about the fiscal cliff. paychecks are going to go down, a million layoffs in the defense industry. no one seems to care right now. it's bad. >> you know what we have going for us? the grid, december 17 announced -- on a seasonal basis, they have reiterated once again that it doesn't have the demand to be sold year round, but starting a week from monday. >> i don't buy that. i think they do it because whenever they have mcrib, they're just fighting traffic for mcrib. there are places in the world where the mcrib is on the menu all the time. in case you're there on your vacation. >> i'm learning here all the time. i'm always learning. >> switch from the bacon cheese-inator. [ bell rings ] . >> celebrating the ground breaking of hotels
jobless claims coming in, down and this number should be essentially clean of sandy effects, so finally a clean read as to the claims aspect. but it doesn't look like, jim, that we are set for a lower open today. >> carl pointed out that maybe there's some room between sides. but, look, yesterday was one of those days, show a lot of americans don't even know about the fiscal cliff. paychecks are going to go down, a million layoffs in the defense industry. no one seems to care right now....